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I think you underestimate the power of GTA4 to gain these meaningless awards. Like it or not, it's probably the frontrunner. LBP, although I hope it wins, may be acknowledged as innovative and fantastic but in the end not as impactful as GTA4. And as for MGS4, it just suffers from niche-itis, GTA4 is very broad in appeal. And let it be known that I'm rooting for MGS4, but GTA4 will unfortunately probably get it.