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Well, if Wii reaches 50% (likely by February at the latest), the PS3 would have to equal 360 sales to hit 25% (50% non-Wii sales, divided by 2 consoles). That's not going to happen.

As it is, it seems highly unlikely, short of a massive price cut early in 2009, that the PS3 will catch the 360 before next fall (if even then). But by then the Wii might have 60% of console sales, which means PS3 and 360 will be dividing up 40% of the pie.

So I don't see the PS3 hittin 25% until the next generation begins.