| Kasz216 said: It's likely China as a government will try and cap growth should it seem that such people are growing to discontent with the government... because that's what authortarian governments do. Any economist who says that "Definitly by 2050 China will pass the US" is an idiot, and just about anyone would call that person an idiot to their face because your basically saying that you expect nothing major to change in 50 years. I mean... there are and have been plenty of things that RAPIDLY change how things happen. |
Great logic, thats why authoritarion governments have been so unsuccessful, their economies are going great but they decide to stop that because the last thing anyone wants is a super power economy.
The Economist asks, "By 2026, will China—assuming it stays in one piece—be the world’s biggest economy?" Thats a very early estimtate, and more of a headline grabber, but economists who are much smarter than Kasz ever dreamed about being peg China's GDP passing the United States at around 2050, taking into account those 'you have to be an idiot to miss ideas' such as GDP growth slowing overtime for China, political turmoil, China's population, as well as many other factors.
http://www.economist.com/theworldin/international/displayStory.cfm?story_id=5134720&d=2006
"Plenty of things rapidly change the happening of things?" I'm buying it, but during let me remind you that China's GDP growth stayed around 10 percent from 1976 to today, that includes the fall of the Soviet Union and the complete overhaul of China's economy.
