PoliCHARTZ - Thread of U.S. Politics & the Presidential Election

[steven787]

Obama/Biden 278

228 Solid     50 Leaning

McCain/Palin 132

118 Solid     14 Leaning

No Toss ups:

Obama/Biden 338    McCain/Palin 200

 

 

State	Obama (D)	McCain (R)	RCP Average	RCP Status	2004	2000
Florida (27)	48.6	46.8	Obama +1.8	Toss Up	Bush +5.0	Bush +0.1
Virginia (13)	49.8	45.5	Obama +4.3	Toss Up	Bush +8.2	Bush +8.1
Ohio (20)	49.0	45.8	Obama +3.2	Toss Up	Bush +2.1	Bush +3.5
Colorado (9)	50.8	45.3	Obama +5.5	Leaning	Bush +4.7	Bush +8.4
Nevada (5)	49.6	43.4	Obama +6.2	Leaning	Bush +2.6	Bush +3.5
Pennsylvania (21)	51.3	43.7	Obama +7.6	Leaning	Kerry +2.5	Gore +4.2
New Mexico (5)	50.3	43.0	Obama +7.3	Leaning	Bush +0.7	Gore +0.1
Minnesota (10)	51.6	41.8	Obama +9.8	Leaning	Kerry +3.5	Gore +2.4

McCain needs to win 70 of these (above) 110 to win, if he loses any of these (below) add that to the 70.

47.6	48.2	McCain +0.6	Toss Up	Bush +12.4	Bush +12.8
Missouri (11)	47.5	48.0	McCain +0.5	Toss Up	Bush +7.2	Bush +3.3
Indiana (11)	46.2	47.6	McCain +1.4	Toss Up	Bush +20.7	Bush +15.7
Georgia (15)	45.8	49.8	McCain +4.0	Toss Up	Bush +16.6	Bush +11.7
Montana (3)	45.0	48.8	McCain +3.8	Toss Up	Bush +20.5	Bush +25.0
Arizona (10)	45.8	49.3	McCain +3.5	Toss Up	Bush +10.5	Bush +6.3

 

South Dakota (3)	42.0	50.3	McCain +8.3	Leaning	Bush +21.5	Bush +22.7
West Virginia (5)	42.5	51.0	McCain +8.5	Leaning	Bush +12.9	Bush +6.3
Arkansas (6)	43.0	52.3	McCain +9.3	Leaning	Bush +9.7	Bush +5.4

 

Obama need to win just 9 more electoral votes than Bush did in 2004.  Minnesota and Pennsylvania are the only ones risky right now, that he might not keep from Kerry in 2004.

The township of Dixville Notch, NH will have their results shortly.  A record turn out of 27 voters are expected to show up.  They traditionally vote Republican, with a 70-80% margin.  So the day might start off well for McCain.

 

Edit: First Precinct Reporting:

Obama won 15-6.  Wow.  They haven't gone Democrat since 1968, Humphrey's Campaign.