Discussion - When Will PS3 overtake 360 WW?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

A few notes on what the Ps3 needs to do to beat the 360 by end of 09.

- The Ps3 would have to outsell the 360 by over 105K weekly. That's 420K monthly, and 5M yearly.

- As the Ps3 is likely to only see a slight win this holiday (ala ~ 500K), we can say that the gap will be about 5M by the start of 09.

- As we can expect the 360 to sell roughly 10-12M next year too (it is likely to have sold ~ 11M in 08), this would mean that the Ps3 will need 15-17M of sales next year. In 2008, it is likely to have sold ~ 12.5M

- If we expect 7M sales for the last 2 months next year for Ps3, (it is likely to see 5-5.5M this year, so a 33% growth) this would mean that it needs 8-10M in 42 weeks. This is an average of 190-240K a week. For a comparison, the Wii sold ~ 240K a week in the first 10 months of 2007. So, Ps3 10 months 09 would need to be equal or slightly lower than Wii 10 months 07

 

Edit:

For the Ps3 to overtake the 360 by Q2 09, this would have to happen.

- The Ps3 needs a monster holiday in 08, managing to outsell the 360 by 1.5M. That's very unlikely, but possible.

- In 09, there's now 26 weeks, non in holiday, and the Ps3 needs 4M. It now needs to outsell the 360 by 150K each week. As the 360 is likely to sell 4M in this period , the Ps3 would need 8M that's 310K a week. For a comparison, the Wii sold 380K in the same period in 08.