Okay, Nintendo expects 200-300K, so I believe their shipment will be around that. That's 0.2% of Japan's population, or ~ 1% of the DS owners.
3.6% is a heck of a lot more than they have supply for.
http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261
That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS