| HappySqurriel said: I have yet to see anyone create reasonable numbers that demonstrate how the success of Blu-Ray can compensate for the losses of the PS3 and the lost dominance of the Playstation brand. From my understanding, the licencing fees associated with movies are far smaller than the licencing fees associated with videogames which is one of the reasons why movies can be sold for $5 while games tend to stay at $20 (or higher). If you make the assumption that Sony makes $2.50 for every Blu-Ray movie (which is amazingly optimisitic in my opinion) they would have to sell 16 Billion movies (or 160 Blu-Ray movies for every household in the United States) to recover the losses from the PS3.
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I can understand the point (regardless the validity of the figures), but the issue I have with your example (using any numbers) is that it overcompensates the other direction -- it presumes SONY never sells another game or hardware unit for profit and relies solely on BD sales. That's simply not going to happen. There is (or will be) a balance there between purchased games, purchased BD movies, downloadable content, and purchased hardware units and accessories that are not going to be sold at a loss over the next five years. Another point to consider is the falling cost of hardware manufacture, which tends to out-strip price reductions on the units themselves. SONY knew it would lose money on the early adopters against the promise that it would make money over the remaining life of the console.
In terms of the media/content itself, where you can certainly find examples at both extremes (the avid gamer that purchases dozens of games per year versus the film buff that purchases dozens upon dozens of movies per year), I think the average tech-savvy household (in the US, at least) falls in the middle (probably purchases x games AND 2*x movies, or thereabouts).
