McCain will pull a Truman upset...

[Aiemond]

HappySqurriel said:

NJ5 said:
So behind all that optimism, do you think McCain is kicking himself for choosing Palin?

 

Realistically, this election will (probably) be so close because McCain chose Palin ...

John McCain has difficulty relating to average-ordinary working/middle-class Americans, fiscally conservative people, and socially conservative people; these are the voters that are most commonly considered the “Base” of the Republican party and without them it would be difficult to win an election.

There are no established conservative-republicans who could have attracted the attention and support from the Republican base like Sarah Palin has.

 

So close? How is it so close? Obama is killing in the polls, he already has large leads in all the states he needs to win the election + some. It is going to be a landslide.

Anyway, here is the deal. Palin electrified the base of the party. This means they will vote in a bigger proportion than they would have. But, this does not eliminate the margin that will be totally lost based on this pick. Who is lost?

1) Non-social conservatives. People think the socials are a big part of the Republicans, and they are, but they are not the only members. Fiscal conservatives, and "light" social conservatives (who put other issues above social ones) are jumping off this pick like rats off a sinking ship. Not only are they not voting for their party's ticket, they are voting for the opposite. So, 1 fiscal turning is worth 2 social conservatives that would have stayed home if not for palin. Remember, the party CANNOT win national elections without this constituancy.

2) Independents. Most of the time independents end up leaning republican. Well, not this time. Most independants are scared of her even being close to the offics, much less only a heartbeat away from a 72 year old man in the office. She has shown a lack of understanding of the issues in a time of crisis.

Now, we have these groups lost. So what does this leave?

1) Social cons. This group makes up maybe 30-35% of the total electorate. Can't win with these only.

2) Party loyalists/some independents: making up about 7%. Which puts McCain about where he is in the polls, 42ish %

 

If the party stays with Palin like nominees, it will be irrelevent. They must restore themselves and become a party that can appeal to a larger maount of people. We will see on the 4th just how much the last 8 years has killed that brand, and Palin continues the "just like us" tradition Bush started. And we know how much he is loved. Expect a Tsunami.