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It will easily sell 10M when it launches, I personally believe that PD have been told to take there time to make the game by Sony as the install base for PS3 is not yet at a point where 10M sales would be easy to achieve. If you look as how mant updates there have been for GT5 Prologue is to easy to see that GT5 is not being released yet simply due to install base.

Once the PS3 reaches 25M sales that will most probably be when Sony give PD the go ahead to release the game, people saying the PS3 needs to have sold 100M sales in order for GT5 to get 10M need to learn about market saturation.