| DMeisterJ said: @ stick We don't even have JP numbers for the first game, how do you suppose up to 50k for 1st week sales? Anyhoo, a million seems likely, with good American numbers. |
http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php?gameid=2659
It was the top-selling Xbox game in 2005. That was the same year that Ninja Gaiden Black did half of that.Now why predict something upto 10x what Fable 1 debuted with?
Lets look at some '04-05 releases with similar X360 titles out there:
| Title Comparison | Xbox First Week | Xbox LTD | X360 First Week | X360 LTD | FW/LTD Multiplier |
| Soul Calibur - II v. IV | 18,262 | Unknown | 34,791 | 51,228 | 1.9x / N/A |
| Halo - 2 v. 3 | 29,235 | 45,917 | 61,143 | 83,696 | 2.1x / 1.8x |
| Forza Motorsports - I v. II | 3,096 | 6,542 | 9,870 | 31,255 | 3.2x / 4.8x |
| Ninja Gaiden: Black v. 2 | 3,886 | 7,439 | 27,215 | 46,675 | 7.0x / 6.3x |
| Kingdom Under Fire: Crusaders v. CoD | Unknown | 6,716 | 15,172 | 21,875 | N/A / 3.3x |
| Rainbow Six: 3 versus Vegas 1 | Unknown | 5,186 | 8,065 | 18,592 | N/A / 3.6x |
..
The point of all of that was/is to show how much better current iterations of comparible games on the Xbox to X360 have done. In the case of Fable 1, it debuted with 5,405 software units en-route to 15k LTD.
The median number, it seems, puts X360 games at selling 2.5-3x more than Xbox games do, so we could assume 15k for Fable 2. Now, having said that, the X360 has other major advantages such as it being near Christmas, and having a ton of readily-used systems for the purchasing base - a luxury the Xbox certainly did not have in Japan in early 2005.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
