| Imperial said: Squilliam explained this nicely before but i can't remember exactly what he said. The further on we progress through the generation the less impact an exclusive game is going to have , as the libary expands on a given console a single title will be less and less of an incentive to buy a console as time passes. |
Thanks 
Yeah there are some pretty obvious things to say about exclusives.
1. If they aren't selling software they aren't selling hardware. So that uber game from 3 years ago that barely registers 5k on the charts isn't going to be moving many (if any) units.
2. If a genre is saturated then the impact of a multiplat/exclusive is going to be muted. See FPS genre for reference.
3. The games which sell big are generally the ones which move consoles, you have a ratio of consoles moved vs software sold. So without numbers on the software side obviously theres no hardware sold.
4. The experience has to be fantastic and compelling. There are games which are worth $60, but there aren't many which are worth $360. Consider points 1/2/3 as well. A game like Halo still sells, it has a lot of people who still play it for hours a week online and its sold big numbers. Its an obvious hardware mover. Ditto*3 for something like Mario Kart/SSBB.
5. People have to talk about the game, they have to share it with their friends etc. The games with the longest legs have a significant local multiplayer aspect and are also very good.
So will Fable 2 sell consoles? I can't say. Its safest to assume it won't sell that many, but it does have a few things going for it. Its got multiplayer, its compelling, its not genre saturated because the last similar release was Oblivion 3 years ago in this genre. So im gonna go out on a limb to say its gonna sell a few, but not significant enough to look like much of a blip outside of the week to week variance and rise towards holiday sales.
Tease.
