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I don't think the Wii will ever hit 50%, honestly. I kinda think it'll cap out around 48.5%, and then slide a little as the HD consoles continue to pick up steam, in relative terms. Blu-Ray is a bigger deal than most think -- and not because of the consumer (its the retailers and publishers who want to switch -- they will shove it down the consumer's throat with BD pricecuts and shelf space), and those 360 price cuts are going to hurt the Wii this holiday season in America, I'm sorry to say. $199 looks a lot better than $249 when you're buying little Billy a present during a serious economic recession.