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VGChartz Hardware data for the period 05th Jan 2008 to 11th Oct 2008:

Console Wii PS3 X360 PS2
Total
14,217,016
7,037,679
5,612,954
4,993,897

PS2 is doing fine vs the HD systems.  The 360 is currently selling 12% more this year.

Potential $129 PS2 buyers would not become $399 PS3 buyers.  They would get the cheaper Wii/360.