What has Sony lost really?

[Lord N]

Dodece said:
I agree with the author in regards to the lost exclusives being unrealistic assumptions created by the loyal consumers. They are most assuredly not the fault of Sony. Unfortunately these expectations sold their console, and are part and parcel of their public image. So it is actually a large loss for Sony. You cannot reap the rewards of a public persona, and then cry fowl when that persona brings heat upon you. When you do not regulate public perceptions you invite situations such as this. While Sony may technically be clean what matters is their persona has become tarnished. Whether Sony deserves this loss is irrelevant for consumers it is now a brand stigma.

I disagree with the assessment that Sony first and second party development can make up the short fall. The problem with this logic is that it in no way matches Nintendo. Nor can it counteract the Microsoft strategy. Which is one of purchasing exclusives. While it may be less profitable at first blush the reality is that it is cheaper to buy an exclusive then to develop an exclusive. Microsoft can make up the difference through their licensing and live service fees. Microsoft has the safer strategy. Not only does it bring more exclusives to their console, but the console architecture ensures PC porting to their console. Sony cannot internally develop itself out of this situation. They must begin to earnestly secure third party exclusives.

I also disagree with the authors bullish opinion of what the console has retained. The reality is that Sony has lost a great deal. I would also say on perhaps every single front. Their public perception has been shaken. They have strengthened their competition. They have found a bad economic model. They have managed to work themselves into a weak library. They let these persist and it will be a long expensive uphill battle for the brand in this generation and the next.

MS really hasn't gained anything. At best, they'll end up in the same position they were in last generation, which is a distant, unprofitable second and just a few million units ahead of the third place console. At worst, they'll be an unprofitable third.

MS's buying of exclusives hasn't even made that much of a difference as is evidenced by the above and the fact that Sony has outsold the 360 for most of the year. For all of the money they've thrown at Japanese developers, what they've gained is a whole lot of nothing. 360 sales are still behind that of the PS3 save a few weeks, and that's really bad considering that the PS3's sales are horrible. Most of the former PS2 exclusives are still on the PS3, they're just multi-platform, so any effect this would have had has been mitigated. Buying exclusives in and of itself is not that sound of a strategy. Not only is it hindering MS's profitablity, but it really doesn't help that the 360's install base isn't large enough to warrant exclusivity despite how much money MS has offered, and this is why most of those exclusives have just become multi-platform. Besides, it takes a steady library of games that appeal to everyone to push hardware, not just a few big name exclusives that appeal mostly to core and hardcore games.

Exclusives are lost every generation. Even the PS2 lost PS1 exclusives. This only seems to matter more this generation because of the other mistakes that Sony made, most notably, the price. Had the PS3 been more affordable upon launch, then the loss of exclusives wouldn't have mattered, and even then, it probably would have kept more of them to begin with.

Regarding first and second party titles, if this path continues and the vast majority of third-party titles end up as multiplatform(which is looking like what's going to happen due to rising development costs), then the only significant difference in library will be first and second party titles. While Sony may not be on the same level as Nintendo in this department, they have MS severely outgunned.

MS's business model isn't really anymore sound than Sony's. They seemed to think that they could just throw money at third-party developers and that it would guarantee them a victory. They didn't really do anything else to make sure that their console would appeal to more than just core and hardcore gamers. Their "razor & blades" business model hasn't worked too well either considering that they've had to pay truckloads of money to get these games on the 360.