I'm sure most of us ''videogame sale enthusiasts'' have at least had this question in our head in recent times.
I decided to post it here after reading Jacob's (The Source) recent article on the latest US weekly sales charts. In said article, he predicts that ''the holiday season should be massive, despite the deteriorating world economy''. I am not here to contradict The Source's prediction. I also think sales will be as good as they always are this time of the year.
Most will say: ''Duh, it's a no-brainer to say that this crisis, if it turns out to be as serious as it looks right now, with banks and companies collapsing and people losing their livelyhoods, will most definitely affect hardware and software sales.''
My question is: How exactly? What specific effects do you expect? If you can provide numerical answers to the question, so much better, like ''overall sales (or a specific console's sales) will go down X%''
My answer to my own question is as follows:
I think overall sales will be affected, no question in my mind about that. However, I think it will affect the HD consoles -particularly the PS3- more profoundly than it will affect the wii (I expect the portables to be affected less as well).
When people have to start saving their pennies, the first things to be cut are expensive and/or unnecessary items from their budget. In this case, if they want to keep videogame entertaintment in their budgets, they will surely give priority to the less costly alternatives.
So, in conclusion, if the crisis turns out to be as bad as some predict and videogame sales go down (I would say they'll go down between 10 and 20%), the wii's marketshare in current-generation home consoles will go up drastically, beyond the 50% that has seemed unnatainable to me up 'till now.
As far as portables go, even if sales go down or not, I would expect the marketshare to remain more or less the same, perhaps a modest 2 or 3% gain for the Nintendo systems, since they already have an absurd piece of the pie to begin with.
This question is speculative, so don't be afraid to give your best guess as to the exact effects you think this crisis might have.
Make sure the shadow you chase is not the one you cast.
