Just to get it on the record again:
40% Rule Estimate
| Console | Wii | PS3 | X360 |
| YTD Sep 27th '08 | 13.58M | 6.78M | 5.29M |
| Holiday Qtr |
~12.15M | ~5.80M | ~5.18M |
| YET '08 |
~25.72M | ~12.58M | ~10.47M |
| LTD Jan 1st '09 | ~44.93M | ~21.44M | ~26.29M |
| Bold=Factual Numbers Italic=40% Rule Prediction Normal=Derivative of Prediction |
Looking at my data I also want to add that the Wii could be as high as ~13.21M in the holiday quarter based on past holidays where consoles have had supply constraints. The 40% rule seems to change to the 42.5% rule in these cases, but its not conclusive just yet. We will see if this holds again but if it does it would mean a ~46.00M LTD on Jan 1st '09.
On the other hand there have been a few strange holidays where consoles underperform this mark as low as 37% which would mean a ~10.98M holiday quarter and would mean a ~43.76M LTD on Jan 1st '09.
And yes I know a 2.24M range is pretty big and all, but I'm just basing this on existing patterns so its really not even my prediction so much as an application of history.
If you want my guesstimation only predictions I will go with:
Wii - 45.3m
PS3 - 21.8M
360 - 26.5
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| To Each Man, Responsibility |
