I will buy a bluray player when:
1. I buy an hdtv
2. movies are $20 or less
3. players are $100 or less.
#1 is the biggest hurdle. I won't buy a tv until my current widescreen sdtv is breaking OR hdtv is the base programming for cable/satellite. Digitial tv is good enough for now.
EDIT: Though I would be really surprised that a BR layers is that cheap already. Must be overstock for older models, maybe.