Assuming the console market continues to go to the end of the generation as it has been so far, the Wii will have a visibly larger userbase which normally translates into more million sellers. It won't be as far above the 360 as some think if you're going to look purely at current numbers. And I don't think the 360's "head start" matters too much right now.
For one, that's assuming that the 360 releasing against a then dominant PS2 was a good idea. It didn't have "no competition" for a year as suggested.
More importantly, given how long all 3 consoles have been out, the first party efforts and the big well known 3rd party games are all out with only a tiny handful of exceptions. Nintendo's first party work drives their console considerably moreso than the other 2, but they've already got the man Mario game out, a main Zelda out, and a sort of spin off. They've got Mario Kart and Smash Bros and Metroid out. And also the Wii franchise has games out now, including the Wiimote that comes with Wii Play. I obviously assume that they will bring out more first party sequels, before someone mentions that. :D
If people are going to use the numbers as reasoning for their viewpoint, then the trend seems to be that the 360 userbase are more likely to buy a variety of games, but at a smaller number than the Wii's bigger sellers. Several people have mentioned that the 360 has more games in million seller territory, but the Wii's biggest sellers REALLY sell, in the 3 million plus range. Whilst we can never tell what new IP will take off or what 3rd party game will surprise us, the current sales trends seem to suggest that;
a) the 360 userbase buy a larger variety of game per user leading to more actual million sellers, whilst the Wii owner's need to stay more with certain games will lead to more massive multi millions sellers of a smaller amount.
and
b) the overall console sales trend towards the Wii's significant userbase advantage leading to enough sales to "overcome" the previous statement by virtue of sheer size.
Long story short :D, unless there is a massive market shift, the Wii will end up with more million sellers, but not by the vast difference some expect.
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