The Bradley Effect may be severely diminished by the horrible economic news that is happening almost daily.
Anyways, here are the most recent national poll numbers, electoral count, and battleground state numbers from RCP:
National:
| RCP Average | 10/01 - 10/09 | -- | 49.5 | 43.3 | Obama +6.2 |
| Gallup Tracking | 10/07 - 10/09 | 2784 RV | 51 | 41 | Obama +10 |
| Rasmussen Tracking | 10/07 - 10/09 | 3000 LV | 50 | 45 | Obama +5 |
| Hotline/FD Tracking | 10/07 - 10/09 | 838 LV | 48 | 41 | Obama +7 |
| Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking | 10/07 - 10/09 | 1203 LV | 48 | 43 | Obama +5 |
| GW/Battleground Tracking | 10/06 - 10/09 | 800 LV | 51 | 43 | Obama +8 |
| Time | 10/03 - 10/06 | 1053 LV | 50 | 44 | Obama +6 |
| NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl | 10/04 - 10/05 | 658 RV | 49 | 43 | Obama +6 |
| CBS News | 10/03 - 10/05 | 616 LV | 48 | 45 | Obama +3 |
| CNN | 10/03 - 10/05 | 694 LV | 53 | 45 | Obama +8 |
| Ipsos/McClatchy | 10/02 - 10/06 | 858 RV | 47 | 40 | Obama +7 |
| Democracy Corps (D) | 10/01 - 10/05 | 1000 LV | 49 | 46 | Obama +3 |
Electoral Count:
| Electoral College | Obama | McCain | Spread |
| RCP Electoral Count | 277 | 158 | Obama +119 |
| No Toss Up States | 353 | 185 | Obama +168 |
Battleground States:
| Ohio (20) | 48.8 | 45.7 | Obama +3.1 | Toss Up |
Bush +2.1 | Bush +3.5 |
| Florida (27) | 48.5 | 45.4 | Obama +3.1 | Toss Up |
Bush +5.0 | Bush +0.1 |
| Nevada (5) | 49.6 | 46.6 | Obama +3.0 | Toss Up |
Bush +2.6 | Bush +3.5 |
| North Carolina (15) | 48.4 | 46.6 | Obama +1.8 | Toss Up |
Bush +12.4 | Bush +12.8 |
| Missouri (11) | 47.4 | 47.8 | McCain +0.4 | Toss Up |
Bush +7.2 | Bush +3.3 |
| Indiana (11) | 45.0 | 48.8 | McCain +3.8 | Toss Up |
Bush +20.7 | Bush +15.7 |
| Colorado (9) | 49.3 | 45.3 | Obama +4.0 | Toss Up |
Bush +4.7 | Bush +8.4 |
| West Virginia (5) | 44.3 | 46.5 | McCain +2.2 | Toss Up |
Bush +12.9 | Bush +6.3 |
| Virginia (13) | 50.0 | 44.9 | Obama +5.1 | Leaning |
Bush +8.2 | Bush +8.1 |
| Wisconsin (10) | 51.4 | 42.6 | Obama +8.8 | Leaning |
Kerry +0.4 | Gore +0.2 |
| Michigan (17) | 49.8 | 41.6 | Obama +8.2 | Leaning |
Kerry +3.4 | Gore +5.2 |
| New Mexico (5) | 49.8 | 42.5 | Obama +7.3 | Leaning |
Bush +0.7 | Gore +0.1 |
| Washington (11) | 49.8 | 41.8 | Obama +8.0 | Leaning |
Kerry +8.2 | Gore +5.5 |
| Georgia (15) | 43.8 | 51.2 | McCain +7.4 | Leaning |
Bush +16.6 | Bush +11.7 |
We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls. The only thing that really worried me was the ether. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke
It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson








Toss Up
Leaning
Leaning