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2 years is a possible assumption, players get cheaper and at that time its realistically to have standalone players at sub $100.

some people will upgrade for the bonus some will jsut buy a bluray as replacement for a broken dvd player. how long is the lifetime for an average dvd player? especially for the cheap ones it cannot be too long i have seen a lot friends buying a new one every 1-2 years often just after warranty is over. i personally own a better quality dvd player and its working still after over 4 years.