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steven787 said:

An upset is where the unexpected one wins.  Davis would have had to beat Coolidge for it to be an upset.

 

Yes, that is why I said would have been. 

The election for Lincoln's 2nd term was closer than most people realize. In regards to popular vote, that is. There were other elections I would put ahead of 64. It depends somewhat on whether you use EC vote or popular vote, but they are fairly congruous in their results.