Br I think will eventually take hold, but it faces some big challenges IMHO:
1) it is HD format. Therefore, unless you are pretty silly, unless you already have an HD TV you can't stroll into a store and just buy a BR player - you need to invest in an HD TV which is a big additional expense. So, PS3 owners aside, the actual market for BR is currently smaller than it might seem right now IMHO and linked to HD TV owners at the hip
2) If you buy a PS3 and are hooking it up to an SD TV then again, like 1) above, I don't see why you'd buy a BR movie. You buy DVD and play that on PS3 instead.
3) BR hasn't (unless I'm missing something) had a holiday season yet as the only HD format, so this coming holiday is the first real chance it has for a big boost, with Iron Man, Dark Knight, etc. giving extra incentive for people to move to HD for TV / Movies
4) I'd be willing to bet PS3 has cannibalized BR standalone player sales. For me PS2 added a DVD to my kids room, but now our expensive PS3 is in the living room under our expensive HD TV and I see no reason currently to buy a standalone player to put next to it (although at a future point I might I suppose)
5) the current global economy is not the ideal situation to be pushing people to upgrade their TV and players within - BR is going to see some serious slowdown in adoption due to this I believe
Of course as BR takes of in PCs, portables, etc. as HD TV transmissions increase, and HD TV penetration increases then BR will get a boost over DVD I believe (even allowing for DVD upscalers).
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
