Sony has made great strides in cutting production costs of the ps3. The blu ray drive is much cheaper now, not to mention the Cell and RSX which are both made under the 65nm process now.
I'd say chances are 50-50 of a price cut happening.
BTW I read on wikipedia that the production costs of the ps3 is estimated to be approximately $400 as of January 2008. How true this is we will find out in the coming months.
edit- Here is a link
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/ps3-production-costs-halved-says-analyst







