PoliCHARTZ - Thread of U.S. Politics & the Presidential Election

[Aiemond]

HappySqurriel said:

Rath said:
@Happy. That is the stupidest thing I have heard. A more reasonable argument would be the people who say they will vote for Obama won't vote at all because they are younger and us young 'uns are lazy little buggers.

Except that the pattern of a visable minority candidate's support being far below their polling numbers has been noticed in several countries around the world in several elections ... In other words, it is not isolated to Obama. Because most elections are (really) not that close, it hasn't decided the outcome of too many elections; but in an election this close if 5% of Obama supporters voted for McCain this would certainly give McCain a very solid victory.

The Ghost of RubangB said:

McCain needs both Ohio and Florida to win, but is behind in both. Obama doesn't need either of them, but is leading in both.

I really don't see a scenario in which McCain wins. Unless they have body transplants and Obama dies of old age next week.

At the moment, the thing I think is hurting McCain the most is the collapse of the credit markets and the $700 Billion bail-out package ... In 4 weeks it will not be that fresh in people's mind, and all that it would take to get McCain to win would be a moderate mistake or "scandal" for Obama days before the election.

The problem with this is that the October job losses will be reported right before the election, this will not bode well for McCain.