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I still think it won't happen. However, I have a huge maybe at $30 discount.

1. Sony has stated repeatedly that the primary focus now is profits.
2. MS's bump due to its price drop has dropped every week WW. This gives support to Sony to just wait it out as it seems 360's sales trend will level back off where it started pre-price reduction.
3. Bundling is going to be big this holiday for Sony with its newest games, especially LBP as they are going to have high hopes for this game. They obviously want it to be their Mario.