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It won't be that big of a deal.

MS already pays royalties to use DVD techs. That will just shift to Bluray. The licensing will have no major impact on the production costs of the neXtBox.

1. dvd royalties are probably comparable to bluray.
2. bluray drives will be considerably cheaper by 2011, i.e. the expected start of the next gen.

This is really a non-issue.