Yet another "PS3's 10 year plan" thred.

[Pristine20]

Magera said:

I know there's been a gazillion topics about the 10 year plan of Sony's PS3 but I wanted to throw out a few thoughts I had as to why it "could" backfire on Sony ('could', not will).

Firstly, I am not trying to bash sony in any way.  These are just opinions and thoughts which have crossed my mind and thought they were rather valid.  I'm not saying the 10 year plan wont work as I'm very certain they will keep the PS3 alive for 10 years, much like the PS1 and PS2.  However, My question is:

Q. Is Sony going to release a new console before the PS3 has been on the market for 10 years.

A. I would say 'Yes'.  It would be foolish not to introduce a new system around the same time as, or at most a year later then their competitors for a number of reasons. 

a) Firstly, from a consumer perspective, the next generation of consoles from MS and Nintendo will make the PS3 seem like it is a last gen system. (Much like the PS2 is last Gen - I'll address this point shortly) - Only that there is no new system coming from Sony.  The graphical upgrade may not be huge or even much at all but to consumers, a product 5 years old is still 5 years old.  It will loose it's Sleek, and new feeling it currently has alongside the next gen consoles.

b) By 2012, the power of the Cell in the PS3 is going to be so insignificant that it will no longer be able to rely on its specs to push the system.  In fact, there are already CPU/GPU's available that blitz the Cell in the PS3... they will be hugely discounted and even obsolete themselves over the next 12 - 18 months so imagine the power in 3 and a half years from now and how cheap it will be, let alone in another 8 years.

c) By 2012, Stand alone BD players/recorders will be Cheap.  More then likely under $50 a pop for a player or $120 for a recorder. (You can already pick up models for under $200). This does not mean people will buy a PS3 for it's BD playing capabilities and play games on, Especially if the next gen systems come with BD players OR another medium which will more likely be the case.  Just like now, people are NOT buying the PS2 to watch DVD's on then just so happen to buy games for it.

d) The PS2 is at the tail end of it's life. Next year it will drop in sales even more and by early to mid 2010 we probably wont be able to buy them anywhere.  IF Sony do not release a Next gen system before the 10 year life span for the PS3, by it's 9th year, it's sales will be deminishing so much that by it's tenth year, (the year Sony bring out the next system), the PS3 will hardly be selling anything at all as it is now a weak (by comparison of tech at the time), 10 year old console.  It's profit/returns will be so low it will not offset any loss's on the PS4 and this will cause them to loose market share as they would be competing with cheap, 4 year old consoles and being 10 years old is a big difference.

e)  This being more speculation then anything else... What IS the Next gen systems going to be like?  Will they have HD graphics, super processing power and 3D Interactive user input?  Depending on what the User input will be like, the PS3 may look completely inferior alongside a new controle scheme.  I say this because the Wii controles have started a trend and I am certain, by the next xbox and Wii2.0, the PS3's controlls will be feeling like they are from the nes ere.  A Perrefrial addon is not going to egnite PS3 sales.  No addon in history has ever achieved that.  Much like the so called PS2 motion controles that where going to give the wii a run for it's money.

f) During the Next Gen, will the Wii keep selling really well into the Wii 2.0 life much like the PS2 has into the PS3's lifespan? I can't give a definative answere for this one.  The Wii has done something no-one (or not many) thought it would do.  Will it have huge legs and keep selling because of it's controls or will it suddenly stop selling upon next gen release?  I personally think it will be the PS2 of this gen and keep selling well into Wii 2.0's life.

All of my above points have led me to the conclusion that if Sony do not release a console before the 10 years plan for the PS3, then they will surely loose a large % of marketshare and leave the field open for another contender to take their place during the interim.

I personally believe they will release a PS4 around the same time as next gen (or a year later at most).  However, if they do this, it will have a relativly large impact on the sales of the PS3 and will prohibit it from stellar 100 Million + sales.

Unfortunatly, Both of my conclusions come off as backfiring for sony.  No console for 10 years, being the worst case senario for them, but as the PS3 has kind of already backfired on them anyway, (we can all agree Sony was expecting much more then what has happened so far), Introducing a PS4 and continuing the PS3 for 10 years is their best option.

Hope you enjoyed my post.

 

a) I would disagree on the point that a product that is 5 years old is still 5 years old so people won't buy it. It depends on the product. Some TVs that were newly released 5 years ago are still getting purchased. People still buy DVD players. Aren't consumers tired of these products? Due to the lack of a serious graphical upgrade, the ps3 could remain viable

b) Are its specs really helping the ps3 now? Why then do you think the post-ps3 gen would outsell it because of specs?

c) Standalone blu-ray players would become  $200? It is almost a guarantee that the ps3 would also be $200 or less with the ability to play  games as a bonus.

d) Supply and demand: This gen put an end to the whole "specs sell" idea. Due to its firmware, the ps3 is extremely versatile and has the potential to be totally different system than what we have now. Throw in the possibility of a ps3 slim and you ahve a posiibility of a continued seller. Think about it, if you bought a launch ps3 like I did, does it have the same functionality as it did about 2 yes ago? The answer would be a resounding NO after only two years. In the case of the ps2, it still has the same functionality it had in 1999. See the difference?

e) You have a point there. However, it's almost a guarantee that there would be some who will reject the new system of controls like some have rejected the wii. Ps3 can cater to those who think the system ain't broken yet. Also, if it is just a  control scheme upgrade, ps3 could also offer that option through firmware.

f) I can't really predict anything about the wii so I'll leave this one alone.

My conclusion: a plus for sony! They would gain a good reputation with third parties for sticking with a system that many had condemned as a failure unlike most console makers of the past. Also, ps3 development would be extremely cheap and it would have a higher installed base than the post-ps3 systems thus making it attractive to smaller devs like the ps2 still is attractive to atlus this gen.