I think that yeah next gen will probably see every console use a variant of Blu Ray and this will be primarily because of costs! If it proves too expensive then MS and Nintendo can still go proprietary! Still you may be right about a slight cost advantage to Sony but it it will likely mean squat!
The original X-box remote control (which was compulsory to watch movies) practically absorbed the fee to the DVD consortium so there are ways to negate the advantage!
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