Believing Blu-ray will succeed doesn't make sense!!!?

[HappySqurriel]

Groucho said:
This is a knee-jerk article, if ever there was one. BR is doing fine. Its easy to see how well its doing, just by watching it take over more and more shelf space at the major retailers and rental outlets. The same thing happened with DVD, and the same doubts ran amok for years... and then one day, VHS just went belly up. Around the same day that DVDs hit $20 (for a new one), I think. When (not if) BR discs hit $20... DVD will just plain die as a standard.

DVD has no chance. The industry has already decided that DVDs are too easy to copy, and that movies are too easy to compress and share. BR offers protection to those companies that DVD can never hope to achieve. DVD has lost already, because the powers that pay to manufacture them will simply choose to oust them eventually, because its better for them from a financial perspective. As soon as BR discs hit $20, DVD will be old news... it won't be as long as you think.

If Blu-Ray has such strong protection, why can I download 1080p Blu-Ray rip movies before the movies are officially released?

Beyond that, in a large part because of how bad VHS was, the difference between VHS and DVD seemed much larger than the difference between DVD and Blu-Ray.

VHS

Upscaled DVD

HD-DVD