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Sony - 150 million PS3's??? - View Post

ph4nt on 26 September 2008
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Seihyouken said:
150 million is just Sony being optimistic. However, PS3's lifetime sales will likely be a respectable 100 million or so over 10 years. Consider the following:

1. PS3 has at least a good 3-4 price-cuts before it even hits $199. That's 3-4 chances to stimulate sales of the system before it even breaks into the mainstream market and reaches its full sales potential. 3-4 price cuts would mean small drops of less than $50, i don't think that's enough to stimulate Ps3 sales, price alone isn't going to sell PS3's, we've seen this with 360, what makes PS3 different?

2. PS3 has HUGE system selling games coming that are bigger than both the 360's games and the Wii's. Final Fantasy XIII, Final Fantasy Versus XIII, God of War III, Resident Evil 5 and Gran Turismo 5 will collectively move several million units over the next two years. Just like MGS4, GTA 4, etc, etc, brought Ps3 sales up a ton? FF 13 is also on 360, same with RE 5, God of War is not a huge seller, FF versus is just a spin off. The only game on there with true selling power is GT 5, but all the games combined will not sell "millions of consoles"

3. Blu-ray and High-Definition will really take off starting this holiday season. PlayStation 3 will be the only system to support blu-ray in the next following years as the demand for HD booms. When PS3 launched people said when Blu Ray won the format war PS3 sale would take off like crazy and pass the Wii, well, Blu Ray won and sales did not increase, Blu Ray becoming more popular will not increase sales of Ps3 since by then, Players will be cheap in comparison.

 

My thoughts, PS3 will not sell 100 million units, price drops and Blu Ray will not do it. It's  taken 2 years just to sell 15 million, even if the 10 year plan is true, that's only 70 million consoles at this rate, I expect PS3 sales to increase next year which will be it's peak but even if Sony keeps it alive for 10 years, it will not be selling 10 mil / year. PS2 isn't even doing that, I think the Wii will peak after year 4 like the DS is right now.