I think most of agree this is a vital holiday season. What do you think is the worst -but feasible- thing that could happen to screw up the holiday for each console?
My guess:
360: Halo 3 suckage. It's happened before. Series start out strong, are the hottest thing around, but later iterations just lose all steam. So much of MS's holiday season seems built around Halo3 that if it falls flat, I don't know how they recover from it.
PS3: No one cares. They're selling they're hearts out on new IPs and promoting the $100 price drop as if it now costs the same as government cheese. But outside of the commited PS3 players, I'm not sure how much any of this is really getting through.
Wii: Massive shortage coupled with a 360 price cut. Even if Mario or Smash got delayed to after the holidays, most know the games are coming, and the extra time will only make them better. But if there are drastic shortages this holiday, and the 360 can cut its price to near-Wii levels, Nintendo just might end up losing some customers to the competition.
