From fivethirtyeight.com
Looking extremely good for Obama at this moment. It's shaping up to look like the 1996 race between Clinton and Dole. That seems somewhat appropriate.
I was talking to my mailman yesterday and he told me he's voting for Obama because he doesn't want to relive the last eight years... and then he mentioned that he lost 20k from his 401k in a couple weeks. He was set to retire next year. People losing money from their IRA accounts or 401k's are looking hard at the economy and looking for answers. They're looking for leadership and a way to get out this mess so they can get on with their lives and not have to deal with a nation-wide, or even world-wide, depression.
I'll make a prediction right here: if the DOW is below 10,000 on election day Obama will win with over 300 electoral votes and 51% of the popular vote, give or take .5%. If the DOW is above 14,500 on election day McCain wins, 274 to 269. I'm not going to factor in the debates, terrorist attacks, the capture of Osama bin Laden, I don't think any of that is going to matter. It's still about the economy stupid.
