Virginia may show as a statistical tie, but when it counts, it will turn pure Red as it always does :/
Trust me, I live here. The problem with VA is that while we do have a lot moderately minded people both on the Democratic and Republican sides, we also have a HUGE swath of the bible belt + a ton of homophobes. We're also very pro gun
Despite our popular democratic governors like Douglas Wilder, Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, we have enough moderates that continue to vote Republican out of pure homophobia and other fringe issues.
I think in a lot of states McCain is indeed seeing an extended bounce from Palin. She continues to be a fresh face, and the media seems to be afraid of tackling the tough questions on her or even disputing the outright fabrications coming from the McCain campaign.
I expect this extended rise to settle down in the following four weeks, and McCain's campaign will either win by the negative campaigning and distractions and trashing Obama with lies, or the lies will finally backfire and cause enough disgust to drive the moderates back into the arms of Obama.
Edit: Holy crap. I may have spoken too soon about VA... former Republican VA governor Linwood Holton (he's pretty much the reason VA has been a red state the last 40 years) is campaigning for Obama now. The younger crowd doesn't know governor Holton, but the older crowd knows him well. This could be tremendous
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