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I would expect a PS4 in 2016. Why? Well, for a start, Sony needs to win back the $3 bln they lost on the PS3. I don't expect them to launch a new console before they make a decent profit. And the PS3 could sell that long - devs will get the hang of developing for it around 2010 or 2011 so the graphics won't be much worse than the 720's. Such stuff like wifi and HDD size - that can be easily upgraded in a new SKU. And by the way, I think that the PS3 will have 2 major hardware revisions - one in 2009, second one in 2012 or so.