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I don't normally do this.  I originally posted this in bdbdbd's thread on Wii Music but felt it deserved a forum of it's own for greater discussion.  Here is the post is slightly edited form (for ease of understanding):

I just can't help but feel Myamoto missed something here.  Sure Wii Music is accessible for everyone but is it engaging? It strikes me as akin to going into a music store and dicking around on the keyboard.  Sure that's fun but if you buy one for the kids you know it'll only be used a few times before being retired to the closet. 

The Sim, WoW, GTA, GH, etc. are all accessible but also engaging.  They have elements that keep you wanting to come back for more.

The entire point of the Wii is to get people playing and playing together.

Playing Wii Music alone looks like a mild distraction. Fun to play the demo at the store but not worth bringing home.

Playing Wii Music with friends? Two problems: It seems either you're just playing a set song which you can't do wrong and arm flailing for the sake of arm flailing gets old - fast OR you can just play the insturments without playing a set song but since neither you nor your buddies know a damn thing about playing music it's going to sound like total crap. Like at E3. Not much fun either.

If they had something to reward you for playing well or to help you learn music or so you could record music and share it with your friends or ANYTHING that made Wii Music an enhancing experience rather than a novel distraction I would think this game would be huge.

Instead GH:WT offers all of that and Wii Music offers none. I would rather play GH:WT or even Samba de Amigo than Wii Music.

Now don't think I'm Nintendo hating either. I has the first to back John Lucas's claims that Nintendo would roar from 3rd to 1st with 20m sold in year 1. I totally preached the greatness and industry changing nature of Wii Fit. (And yes I use it to exercise - I don't even think of it as a game)

But where Wii Sports and Wii Fit gave you a sense of progression and engagement Wii Music does not. At least, not that we've been shown so far.

I bucked the trend in saying Wii would be a major success, I bucked the trend saying Wii Fit would be bigger than GTA IV (and it will) and I am again bucking the trend and predicting that Wii Music will be a (relative) flop compared to GH and RB or Wii Fit and Wii Play unless there is more to it than meets the eye (no Transformer pun intended)

 

Edit: New information has shown that you CAN record preformances of your playing a pre-rendered track then play it back and add more instruments.   That IS a positive sign but still not enough yet for me to change my prediction.