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fooflexible on 20 March 2007
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People keep saying third party exclusives are dead, but this simply isn't true. Phil Harrison got it right when he said RIGHT NOW third party exclusives don't make sense. Of course you have to go multiplatform, when these games were ps2 exclusives they were dealing with a huge huge userbase. With this generation in it's infancy it's hard to justify keeping a franchise exclusive to one console. But as these userbases begin to balloon you'll see that start to change. Phil harrison said that would happen, sure who wants a ps3 exclusive when there is only 2 million ps3s out there? What about when there is 20 million of them? Then you'll see them. and you must understand there is two sides to exclusive content, the publisher's side, and the console maker's side. The console maker is willing to throw out there incentives to keep content exclusive. Right now the console makers can see it's simply not a viable option to bother with exclusive content, they're in the red earning back their loss on consoles and working hard on a solid year of first party exclusives, why spend the absurd amount of money courting? The next round is all about third party exclusives. This is what I believe the new business model is for a console life: First 18 Months(give of take): Launch a powerful onslaught of first/second party titles, while securing multiplatform titles to keep a steady stream of released titles. At this time developer tools are being designed, patches being released, and courting of third parties is being bulstered while the first wave of titles expands the userbase. Next 18 Monthes(give of take): The developer tools, courting of third parties, and expanded user base now make their case to look a strong line-up of exclusive third party content, while several small first/second party titles keep the company producing. This is the hold over period giving the triple a teams time to develop more powerful 2year productions. Last leg of life span:After which the AAA teams again can start their second wave of titles to prove the console has legs to go the distance. And the thrid party courting work in tandem. In which you'll get a collage of exclusive and multiplatform. This last first party push will allow them to create a strong enviornment for the third parties, and giving them time to start developing products for the next-gen console.(of course there will always be excpetions to the rule based on delays and problems, and general timing of things. But I believe this is the general standard) This is why there is so much talk of internal development now. After Nintendo releases Smash Bros., Metroid, Mario Galaxy, after Microsoft release Mass Effect, Forza2, Blue Dragon, Lost Odyessy, After sony release Lair, heavenly Sword, and so on you'll see by next summer the third party exclusive talks will be brought back to life again.