How much longer will analog sticks be relevent in gaming?

[Bodhesatva]

I suspect the days for traditional game pads are numbered. Honestly, look at gaming history: how has the basic control pad remain nearly untouched for three decades, as gaming exploded around them? Compare the NES controller to the 360 one. The 360 one has analog sticks and rumble; otherwise, they're effectively the same (the 360 has more buttons, that's about it).

Now, the game pad is attacked from both sides. Casual players seem to be preferring the Wii mote; and I can tell you from experience that high-skill gaming is simply easier with a mouse and keyboard. I expect the traditional controller to become an extended peripheral by the end of next generation. I'm not suggesting the Wii remote will dominate all; I'm saying it's clearly time for a change.

The game pad used to be the controller of choice for more casual gaming -- it's only real competition was the mouse/board, and obviously those have hundreds more buttons and a considerably steeper learning curve. The relatively few buttons allowed for game pads to be the simpler, easier choice. But it's not the simplest, easiest choice any longer, and that's a problem.