If Microsoft is going to fight a war for exclusives with either Nintendo or Sony they are just going to lose badly. Sony has more studios making first party games for them then both Nintendo and MS put together. If you want to know why no core games are hitting the Wii any time soon its because there aren't that many Nintendo dev teams, but that is made up for by the huge appeal of the Wii games (in that they sell for 2 years instead of 2 months filling in the no game gap for Ninty revenue). MS has a handful of developers and as such a handful of games. Even their first party games are not from studios they own this year (Fable and Gears of War 2) which is a big reason for the heavy defection of their big games to rival platforms.
Bioshock goes PS3 because it was not an MS studio, Gears of War goes PC as does Fable, not MS studio; Ninja Gaiden Sigma goes PS3...now that Bungee is an indy company even what do you think the chances are that the new bungee games won't go to PC and probably even Mac too?
On the other hand for PS3 Heavenly Sword PS3 only, Uncharted PS3 only, Little Big Planet PS3 only, Ratchet and Clank PS3 only...all the big Sony exclusives stay exclusive, they don't even go to the PC 90% of the time. Sony does a good job with developer loyalty even without resorting to moneyhatting MS style.
The big "exclusive" 360 releases are not like PS3 exclusives. With 360 "exclusives" you don't need the console they are "exclusive" to to play them. At least 10 out of 12 of the BIG GAMES will hit either the PS3 or the PC in short order.
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