akuma587 said:
I'm not an idiot. You don't have to point out how the electoral system works, polls, or where to look for comprehensive lists of polls by state. I have probably been looking at polls longer than you. The problem with all sites that average polling data is that they assume all polls are equal, which is not true. Some polls just have better methodologies and are more "accurate" than others. I am not saying state polls should be ignored, I am saying they should be taken with a grain of salt like any other poll. Some sites don't include certain polls, while other sites do include them while excluding other polls. Its all really complicated, and while they do give you a decent idea of what is going on in a state, they are far from perfect.
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I never said you were an idiot. It seemed to me that you were uncertain as to how the president is elected, and that does not make you an idiot. Also, I am confused as to why the length of time you have spent looking at polls is pertinent, but I am glad you pay attention to the polls and have a rudimentary understanding of the Electoral College.
I do not look at poll averages. Poll averages are meant to smooth out aberrant results and make the data more easily digestable for the average citizen. I look at each poll individually to gain a better knowledge of who may win the state. If you want a more accurate portend as to how the election will be decided, it is better to look at the polling data from individual states. Of course, there are other factors to consider such as state demographics and partisan trends; but the point I made in my first post, and a point I think was lost on you, is that state polls are more relevant than national polls in regards to predicting a winner.
