Obama's Lead on McCain in Polls Largest Since June

[Jackson50]

akuma587 said:

Jackson50 said:

 

 

National polls are often hyped because they give people something to discuss...much like this thread. A more accurate portend for the outcome of the election is the polls of the individual states. Their frequency is not a problem. Multiple polls a week from the same state is superfluous. I am unsure as to how they are poorly done. They are mostly conducted by the same polling firms that conduct national polls.

About half of them are done by national pollsters, the other half by in-state or local groups, who don't always have the same methodologies.  Sometimes they better understand the state's electorate though, which the national pollsters can misconstrue. 

State polls are an important gauge, but they should be taken with as much or more incredulity as national polls.

 

About half of them are done by national pollsters? I would love to see the evidence supporting that. If you want a more accurate estimate of the outcome of a presidential election, state polls are a better choice than national polls. The election is won by the number of EC votes a candidate wins. Here are two excellent resources my professors and I use when looking at the current state of the presidential election:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/poll-tracker.htm

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/