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The EC map from 2000 will be the most similar to the EC map of 2008. The only difference I am prepared to make as of now is Ohio. I foresee Obama winning the popular vote, but the EC is a toss-up. I predict Obama will win, but the possibility of Obama winning the popular vote and losing the EC is real. I think people are overestimating the Barr factor. He will not cost McCain any states. I believe Virginia, Colorado and Ohio will be the states to watch this election.