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I'm not an expert but I think that in others many casual PS2 owners are upgrading to the Wii, but that is offset by the expansion of the market. In NA most PS2 owners are sticking with their console for now, so the PS3 could get a big boost when it gets to the $299 price point. In Japan handheld success + Wii success spell rock bottom sales for the PS3, although that could change when FFXIII (one of the biggest games in Japan) and a slim model are released.