My guess - and this is only a guess - is that China goes prime-time in 2009.
The drivers are economics and urbanization. Russia's emergence as a game market is a case in point: in 2002 almost everything there was pirated. (Per capita income was $250 a month). Nowadays, piracy is a lot less common, because Russian per capita income is up to $642/month. Crime no longer pays, instead people becoming willing and able to pay for genuine goods and decent customer service. (Sony's Russia biz is reportedly going through the roof.)
China's average per capita income is $2200, or roughly $183 per month. Since average incomes in China's cities are three times higher than rural incomes, the urban regions should reach that magic $642/month level by 2009 or 2010. (Urban regions = 40% of China, about 480 million people). So my guess is, the Chinese mass market is two years away.
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