Does anyone see any way the Wii will NOT win this gen?

[shams]

Surprised to see so many of the "same old" arguments here, that have been argued to death.

Barring some sort of "disaster" (Wii RRoD, factories explode, Wii virus, Ninty HQ taken out by earthquake), I think there is a very slim chance - and getting slimmer by the day.

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Nintendo "disrupted" the industry, and did it to benefit themselves. Another company can do the same thing - throw in a great big wrench, to completely change the dynamics of the industry.

Its unlikely to be either Sony or MS though. They have both invested too much money & effort in their current products. Sony in particular could have a lot to lose - MS less.

A cheap, next-gen handheld - possibly with digital distribution caps, TV output (so it doubles as a console), and an innovative control system - could be the sort of thing that could do it.

By mixing "handhelds" & "consoles", the industry would be in for a huge shakeup (and it may come next-gen anyway).

One example could be Google & Apple working together - a iPhone type device (without the phone? with the phone?) but aimed at games could be dangerous. Maybe throw Nokia into the mix - the new Ngage deck could threaten handhelds (maybe), but are too different from consoles to affect the dynamics.

I say 'slimmer by the day', as any new device would need to start from "0 units" - and the Wii will have a 10m headstart very soon.

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I don't believe the PS3 or 360 have a chance. Neither device can disrupt the industry and reduce the sales/momentum that the Wii has. And Wii sales are only likely to increase as manufacturing issues are reduced, and the price (eventually) drops. 

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Sony releasing a "low-end" PS3 (PS4 rumours from while back?) with Wiimote control would disrupt.  But that would also disrupt Sony/PS3 just as much - and possibly worse, admit to the public that their strategy was wrong.

Maybe the worst thing that could happen to Ninty, is the PS3 suffers a complete and rapid death (which doesn't look like it will happen at all). If it did, Sony would drop the platform, and redesign to go right after Nintendo - with all guns blazing.

Probably the best outcome for Ninty would be "average/mediocre" PS3 sales. Sony puts lots of effort/money into the platform, yet it never has a chance to come close to matching the Wii in terms of raw sales.

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Take this week in Japan for instance. Even if the PS3 does sell 40k-50k hardware - it would still be less than 50% of the weekly Wii hardware sales. And this with the release of Sony's 2nd strongest title in the region (only behind GT).

All in all, I give the Wii a 95% chance of "winning" this gen (depending on definition of "winning" of course). No doubt that Nintendo have already proven their philosophy a success, and are raking in the profits as a result.