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I don't know who is going to win, but I do think that people are underestimating McCain and are not paying attention to things that may negatively impact Obama ...

One thing I have noticed is that Obama has stopped seeing popularity gains since he won the primary, and I think one of the biggest reasons for this is that he is overexposed in the media and people are starting to get burned out. This is not the biggest problem in the world but it is one of the common problems for why some politicians peak too early ... if the media keeps pushing him as hard as they're he could see a couple of point decline in popularity and it could become hard to get the turn-out he needs to win.