noname2200 said:
A couple of points. First, we don't actually know whether or not he has full access to NPD data and the like. More importantly, having access to that data doesn't seem to be doing Pachter et. al. too much good, so such access is apparently not the deciding factor that it's cracked up to be. And while it's possible that all Wii buyers are composed primarily of traditional gamers, the fact that non-traditional software is selling at a record pace, that its sales are going through the roof in spite of hostility from the traditional base, and that there is a mountain of anecdotal data on this point all combine to make his point more likely to be true than not. As to disruption, I won't claim to be an expert, but I'm 99.999999% certain that you're misunderstanding it. Price does not determine value: according to disruption, the 360 could cost half of what the Wii does and still not be disruptive. What matters is that the Wii seems to be serving customers' needs much better than the 360 does, because it offers something that the HD consoles lack but which many "overshot" customers desire (more accessible controls, software focused on their needs, etc.). Put alternatively, a farmer looking to buy a tractor wouldn't be interested in buying a Porsche, even if it costs the same as the tractor. As to your second point that because the PS2 shares much of the same base as the Wii, I believe you're highly misinterpreting disruption and what the data is telling us. In point of fact, I believe that may prove Malstrom's point in a lot of ways. The PS2 was "good enough" for many folks in many ways; the added features of the HD consoles are not things that the average consumer is apparently interested enough to pay for. The HD consoles thus are examples of overshooting technologies. Now, you say that because quite a bit of the PS2 user base are also purchasing a Wii, then the Wii is not truly expanding the market. Perhaps you're right, but I'm skeptical about that as well. Apart from the anecdotal evidence (which I concede is rarely worth as much as we make it out to be) there is the fact that the Wii is outselling the PS2 during the latters' heyday, and the fact that the PS2 is still selling. The former tells me that unless the PS2 turned millions of people into die-hard gamers that simply have to have video game consoles now, the Wii is appealing to new people in addition to those who already were interested in gaming. The latter fact tells me that people who're only interested in the PS2 expereince are sticking with the PS2; if they were satisfied with just that experience, they wouldn't also buy a Wii. Put alternatively, the Wii must be offering more than what the PS2 offers, or else folks wouldn't be double-dipping. |
Man... I'm so glad I took the time to read through this thread before initially posting. Some great things being said in here.
@noname: I see you've been following Malstrom a bit (you and me both). I bolded a few terms that he uses in his language quite often.
