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It does have a lot to do with install base but more or less to do with legs. However opening weeks really doesn't matter as any game can accumulate a fanbase to buy in the first week... especially in Japan. Install base really only gauges potential. However with DS and Wii... like PS2, there are just so many games releasing a lot of them are just going to get lost in the competition with the others. Probably what happened with those.

But remember sales are determined by marketing, brand appeal, and hype. They are gauaged by userbase. Trust me if userbase meant nothing, every game would be exclusive because they are trying to maximize potential.