Erik Aston said:
Here's your problem. I believe that the NPD report where that number comes from was a study on install base, seperate from their retail tracking. Obviously a lot of people who have bought a PS2 since 2001 no longer own or use it. So the total number of PS2 "owners" is probably 20-30M, not the whole 40+M retail sales they have tracked. (Incidently, this is also the reason for the infamous "reverse sales" chart in some analyst's Wii sales prediction.) Check and see if they list install base estimates somewhere else in the report. Anyways, in regard to whether they've expanded the market, 1.) their monthly sales are higher than anything seen before, so the market is bigger month to month than it was in the PS2 years, and 2.) more people within a household use the Wii compared to past consoles, so not all of the customer expansion will be seen in raw sales numbers. |
This is obviously the correct explanation.
25M Ps2s * 20% = 5M
The logical would then be ~ 3-4M GC owners, with a 1M ish overlap, so 2.5M there, and a bit lower from XB, maybe next to none really.
So that would bring the total up to ~ 7.5-8.5M, meaning that Wii really has a somewhat of 33% new buyers in Americas this far.
