I know I've posted this one before, but with the X360 RPG onlslaught just 2 weeks away, I wanted to have a huge blowout discussion on the upcoming RPGs (W and J) for the X360.
If you've been living under a rock the past year, the Xbox 360 is the home of RPGs this cycle, for the next 2-3 years atleast. This is in total opposition to the Xbox, as it had the RPG depth of a child's swimming pool. Although the Xbox's library was hardly lacking in real good RPGs (Morrowind, KOTOR 1/2, Jade Empire, Fable), it still lacked any Japanese-borne RPGs (sans Sukedi).
However, the reason I bought my X360 was for RPGs, as I felt that if MS wanted a fighting chance this cycle, it had to invest in more RPGs. And I was right 2 years ago, even with only Oblivion and Enchanted Arms on the table.
But now the onslaught is here. In just a 4 month span, the X360 will almost equal the Xbox's entire RPG catalogue, with 5 RPGs (3 JRPGs, 2 W-RPGs), and others slated for soon after (such as Sega's Culdicept Saga TCG/RPG).
Thus far, for sales, we've had:
| The Elder Scrolls: Oblivion | 260,000 | 1,175,000 | March 29th, 2006 |
| Marvel: Ultimate Alliance | 50,000 | 450,000 | Late Oct, 2006 |
| Enchanted Arms | 33,000 | 130,000 | Late Sept, 2006 |
| Phantasy Star: Universe | 34,000 | ~80,000 | October 24th, 2006 |
With tepid sales of EM and PSU, where will JRPGs Lost Odyssey, Blue Dragon, and Eternal Sonata wind up? The one positive side of the tepid sales with both currently-released JRPGs, is that both sucked. The average score of EM/PSU hovered around 75%, whereas the weakest one, Eternal Sonata, should reach a projected score of 80% or above, as OXM has already reviewed it with a decent/solid 8.0.
Also, we have uber-heavyweight Mass Effect and unknown upcomer, Two Worlds to be the bookmarks of the start & end to the RPG-fest this year.
So where do you see sales being at?
I figure opening weeks and LTD totals at the end to be near:
| Mass Effect | 500,000 | 2,500,000 | November, 2007 |
| Lost Odyssey | 250,000 | 750,000 | December, 2007 |
| Blue Dragon | 150,000 | 575,000 | August 28th, 2007 |
| Two Worlds | 125,000 | 450,000 | August 14th, 2007 |
| Eternal Sonata | 60,000 | 195,000 | September 13th, 2007 |
My reasonings:
Mass Effect: Really, really high sales. When I see/think Mass Effect, I see "Gears of War" type numbers emblazed in my head. The game has been receiving GOW-type buzz for awhile now, and tons of positive hype from E3. Judging by the Xbox.com forums chatter, I'm not alone. ME is far out ahead of every other game's forum in post count, sans Halo3. Halo stands at 22,000 replies, and ME is at a whopping 14,000. Despite being so much later in the year. These numbers are far higher than any other game. Not only this, but having a November launch date gives it enough time to garner good December sales along with non-RPG X360 games GTA and H3. Also, with the game being shooter-heavy, I think it'll easily cater to both WRPG players that bought Oblivion, but also Halo/Gears fans as well.
Lost Odyssey: Supposedly the 'Guch's masterwork. Although JRPGs have done poorly, I think LO will be a great commercial succuess. With very few games planned for a December launch, LO seems to have a great date planned for it. Although I suspect it'll be very frontloaded, I consider 3/4m sales in the US to be a good ammount compared to Final Fantasy XII. More importantly, I think it should sell great outside of the US in PAL territories, and Japan, where the game is pretty high up the Famitsu Most Wanted list.
Blue Dragon: A kiddie RPG. This one is certainly a huge question. Viva Pinata, a great game with similar merits and pedigree bombed opening week, but managed huge numbers afterwards (atleast in comparison with it's abysmal 10k opening week). Opening week is a real mystery, but when I probed my local EB about pre-orders (when I got my pre-order), they told me PO had been real strong for Blue Dragon - over 30 copies (as of a week ago) were already done. This was about the same # for Forza Motorsports 2. Could a kiddo JRPG like this trump Dragon Quest VIII's sales (around 450k) on PS2? I think so.
Two Worlds: I've been getting ALOT more hyped about this one. Enough to go pre-order, and pay for a CE this week. There has been a decent bit of un-noticed hype for the game. Being called the "Oblivion killer" doesn't sound like it might hurt. But opening versus Madden 08 might hurt it alot too. I don't know how I'm to pick up this game the same day as Madden, and beat away the stupid idiots buying Madden for this gem. With multiplayer, this game could do gangbusters, and I even would say higher numbers are attainable in the US. When I got my CE, I asked if pre-orders were going well, and the sales guy (a good friend of mine that handled my Oblivion preorder last year), said that PO status was going very very well for the game, and had picked up dramatically as launch was apporaching.
Eternal Sonata: The one I fear will bomb. ES, although graphically beautiful, and stunning, has been getting very, very, very little press/hype. Not only this, I think Namco has pretty much screwed themselves placing it only 2 weeks after higher-class Blue Dragon, and 2 weeks before Halo3. The game has been finished for awhile, and Namco decided to put it here, but why? Over at the XB forums, the ES forum has a whole 250 posts, compared to Blue Dragon's 5,000. Thats just abysmal. It reminds me of Enchanted Arms last year. No talk whatsoever. I think it'll wind up with EM-type numbers, sans the fact there are quite a few more X360 owners here. The only possible advantage is that most people aware of Blue Dragon are very intested in ES as well, which might translate into good sales. But nevertheless, I think it'll underpreform. Despite the fact this game, grapihcally, is far more abitious than any other RPG slated for the X360 thus far.
Am I vastly over/under thinking something? My ME prediction is certainly the highest, but when I see that ME has more chatter on XB forums than GTAIV has....I think something's just plain wrong there.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
