It won't even be a pebble under the Wii's foot, for several reasons.
1) Install base. The Wii was bundled with motion controls from the start, and thus has an installed-base of 31 million motion controls. These guys need to start from zero, and it won't be easy.
2) Price point. $79 is a LOT of money for a simple control peripheral, especially considering the Wii Remote is only $49.
3) Games. Nearly every game designed for the Wii is designed for motion controls. It's very hard to justify spending $79 on a controller that only works with a couple of games. It worked for Guitar Hero, because there was/is nothing like it (except for Rock Band), but the Wii already beat these guys to the market by 2+ years.
4) Lack of popularity. The Wii is a juggernaut. No knock-off motion controllers, no matter how much better they are, can beat it now, or even make a dent in its armor.
5) History. No third-party controller peripheral (aside from the aforementioned Guitar Hero/Rock Band controllers) has EVER succeeded in garnering a significant marketshare on ANY home console. Hell, most first-party efforts have failed if they weren't bundled with the system from the start.
So, yep. Just another me-too in a growing sea of me-toos.
"'Casual games' are something the 'Game Industry' invented to explain away the Wii success instead of actually listening or looking at what Nintendo did. There is no 'casual strategy' from Nintendo. 'Accessible strategy', yes, but ‘casual gamers’ is just the 'Game Industry''s polite way of saying what they feel: 'retarded gamers'."
-Sean Malstrom
